Is USPS Underestimating the Number of Layoffs Its Downsizing Plan Would Require?

The U.S. Postal Service’s estimate that its “workforce optimization” plan will require 120,000 layoffs in the next four years may be substantially understating the number of postal workers who would be forced out. The recently released plan calls for shedding 220,000 career employees over the next four years. It estimates that attrition will take care of 100,000 employees, meaning the rest of the cuts would have to come from layoffs.

The estimate accurately reflects recent trends, when the number of career employees declined by just over 25,000 in a 12-month period. But there’s a big reason not to project recent trends