COMMERCIAL PRINTING OUTLOOK — PRINTING WORK TO RUN SHORT

There’s one wrinkle in PERC’s research the economists are still mulling over. NAPL’s Printing Business Index (PBI) measure of business activity dipped below 50 this summer, but then spiked back up, Vincenzino points out. “We think it may too high.”

Positive Reactions

A reading above 50 means more printers are reporting activity is picking up than say that business is slowing down. “The spike could be a positive reaction from a sense of relief that all of the negative scenarios in the summer months—oil going to $100 a barrel, the Israel/Lebanon conflict, etc.—abated,” the economist explains. “Historically, the PBI has been accurate in signaling turns in business, but it could be over- stating business conditions now.”