Commercial Printing Outlook : Healing Light Cast on 2011

Because of such unknowns, Davis frames his outlook in terms of The Good, The Bad and The Ugly scenarios. Heading into the fall, he was betting on The Bad—sluggish recovery, with a GDP growth rate of 2.7 percent in 2011 and 2.7 percent in 2012.

However, the outcome of the November elections and other factors now have PIA's economist somewhat more optimistic about the outlook for 2011 and 2012. Davis sees the most likely trajectory of the economy over the next two years bringing inflation-adjusted growth of 3.3 percent in 2011 and 3.5 percent in 2012. He puts the likelihood of that scenario at 50 percent vs. 30 percent for a continued sluggish recovery, and 20 percent for a double-dip recession (The Ugly).