Commercial Printing Outlook: Forecasting a U-turn

He notes that one of the most tried-and-true measures of a recovery is the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance. He says there's a misconception that recovery begins with the unemployed, but it really starts with the mindset of the employed.

When the job losses start to slow, as they have been, the mindset of the employed changes from the paralyzing fear that they will be next to go, to a level of comfort that allows them to consider big purchases (entertainment centers, cars, homes, etc.). As consumer spending and demand first stabilize, then inch up, companies stop making cuts and then start to expand hours worked before, finally, beginning to hire.