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Let's look at a rolling 13-week quarter, but make our predictions for only the upcoming week. I learned this trick from Europeans. It's a way of making forecasts that are fairly consistent with facts.
We're basically concerned with CASH—how much is in the drawer for any period. Is there more or less than expected? If, at the end of a period such as a year or rolling quarter, there's less than we started with, we're headed for trouble unless we've got a damned good explanation. Call it the Grandpa's Cash Drawer system.
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