National Postal Forum Highlights Few, but Vital, Options for Smaller Mailers

Forecasting Future Mail Volumes

The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) was hired by the USPS to forecast mail volume through 2020. Through basic surveys to mailers and service bureaus followed up with personal conversations with the largest clients, BCG forecasts volume to fall to 150 billion pieces of mail by 2020 from its peak of 213 billion in 2006 or 30% drop. This assumes no extraordinary intervention elements. The worst-case scenario pushes the 2020 volume down to 120 billion. Additionally BCG expects a major shift from First Class to Standard Class mail dominance as bills continue their transition to e-presentment via the Internet. First Class was 50% of the total in 2009 and it will be 38% in 2020. This product mix shift will erode the profit margin to cover fixed costs from 71% last year to 21% in 2020.