Paper Market Forecast — Outlook Turns Bearish

On the cost side of the equation, 23.3 percent of printers responding to NAPL's March survey reported paper prices were rising, as compared to 17.2 percent in January and only 9.7 percent in November 2003. "The good news is we haven't seen any signs of shortages," Paparozzi says.

Offering a similar take on current market trends is Ronnie H. Davis, Ph.D., chief economist at Printing Industries of America in Alexandria, VA. "With the economy back on a sound footing and print markets finally getting going, we will probably see some tightening in paper markets in the second half of the year," Davis says. "I expect to see some modest price increases and tighter availability, but no major shifts. Conditions are certainly improved, but not to the point of supporting major increases."