Analysis of the Case for Imposing Duties on Coated Paper from China and Indonesia

By Jack Miller

Figure 1

Case Calendar*

Countervailing Anti-Dumping  Duties Duties

Petitions Filed 9/23/2009 9/23/2009

DOC Initiation 10/13/2009 10/13/2009

ITC Preliminary Determination 11/9/2009 11/9/2009

DOC Preliminary Determination 3/1/2010 4/29/2010

DOC Final Determination 7/12/2010 TBD

ITC Final Determination 8/26/2010 TBD

Issuance of Order 9/2/2010 TBD

*Calendar is subject to revision.

Figure 2

Coated Paper  Consumption and Market Share

Calendar Year Jan. – June

2006 2007 2008 2008 2009

U.S. Producers U.S. Shipments 987,704 937,430 821,708 405,170 338,276

Share of U.S. Consumption 46.2 46.4 46.6 47.1 47.0

Imports from:

China 282,726 302,858 275,532 109,757 164,829

Share of U.S. Consumption 13.2 15.0 15.6 12.8 22.9

Indonesia 44,695 52,541 52,938 21,506 19,883

Share of U.S. Consumption 2.1 2.6 3.0 2.5 2.8

All Other Countries 824,533 727,306 611,626 324,258 196,512

Share of U.S. Consumption 38.5 36.0 34.7 37.7 27.3

Source: Table IV-4 and IV-5, ITC publication 4108, Nov. 2009

Figure 3

U.S. Coated Paper  Imports from China (Tons)

350,000

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20082009

Source: RISI

8,759 40,339 80,638 142,027 167,985 318,652 322,590 291,075 304,578

Frank: the numbers starting with 8,759 are the numbers to be used for plotting the line. They can be deleted once you plot the graph. A print of the graph is in the envelope.

LATE LAST September, NewPage Corp., Sappi Fine Paper  North America and Appleton Coated LLC, along with the United Steel Workers (USW), filed a petition with the Department of Commerce (DOC) and the International Trade Commission (ITC) charging Indonesia and China with illegal subsidies and dumping during 2008 and 2009, which subsequently caused "material injury" to the U.S. paper industry.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 All Next »

2 Comments

View Comments

Jack Miller Author's page

Jack Miller is founder and Principal Consultant at Market-Intell LLC, offering Need to Know™ market intelligence in paper, print and packaging. Previously, he was senior consultant, North America, with Pira International.

Known as the Paper Guru, Jack is the former director of Market Intelligence with Domtar, where he also held positions as regional sales manager, territory sales manager and product manager. He has presented at On Demand, RISI’s Global Outlook, PRIMIR, SustainCom World and at various IntertechPira conferences. Jack has written for Printing Impressions, Canadian Printer, Paper 360, PaperTree Letter and Package Printing, along with publishing a monthly e-newsletter, MarketIntellibits.

He holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from The College of the Holy Cross and has done graduate studies in Statistics and Finance.

Coated Paper Controversy: Paper Case Cuts Both Ways