What Will 2007 Hold for Printing Shipments?

Every day, we review forecasts, and sometimes we joke there are often more forecasts than there are real data. There is one aspect of forecasts that continually befuddles us: the “consensus forecast.” This means that someone has taken all of the forecasts that were available and averaged them together. If there were true consensus, the forecasts would not have to be gathered in the first place. And if forecasting was something important, why would one want to average a bunch of bad forecasts together hoping that something good would come of it. One can’t make a good stew with tainted meat and rotting vegetables.