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Good forecasts require a combination of approaches, but someone, sometime, has to put a stake in the ground and proclaim what the forecast is.
Our forecast models for 2007 show three scenarios. For comparison, this past year’s inflation-adjusted shipments will be about $91.4 billion. Model 1 estimates that shipments in 2007 will be $92.9B, model 2 says $92.7B and model 3 says $82.3B. We can say with great confidence that all of the models will be wrong. But that’s the first step.
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