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Models 1 and 2 have formulas that more heavily weigh the recent past than distant history, just like that executive who values the last thing that was heard in a casual hallway conversation. Model 3 has a longer term view, and in light of the past five years trend, and not the last five months, forecasts more pessimistically—about -11% less than the other two forecasts. The consensus of the models would be $88.6B, if one takes comfort in that. It almost sounds reasonable.
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